10.4 GT3RS style

GT3RS
Trader
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

Hi all,

I have been following Bob's 10.4 strategy with a great deal of interest and would join everyone on here to thank Bob and everyone else who has contributed to and shared this.

However, I'm personally not comfortable with the huge stop losses. And yes, I know that the £ or $ risk is the same no matter what size your SL, if you size your position correctly, but this impacts on your R:R massively.

I have come up with something which seems to be giving good results so far, and which might assist newer traders to use it on a more mechanical basis.

My thinking is based on the fact that Bob's 10.4 gives high probability indications of turning points within a trend on the H4 timeframe.

So, I then started looking for ways to enter on a lower timeframe with a smaller SL and potentially bigger target.

Using the experience of AussieDoc's strategy, I settled on the 3EMA crossing the 8EMA on the M15 timeframe.

It works like this:

Price is below 240LWMA, so we are looking for shorts.

RSI [2] must get pinned to the 100 level for a H4 candle close. 99 is NOT good enough, it has to be pinned to the 100 level.

Then we go to the M15 chart to look for the 3EMA/8EMA crossover. HOWEVER, this crossover MUST happen during the London/NY trading session.

I've tested this with a 1:4 risk:reward. Sure, the entry will be too early many times [approx. 50% of the time], BUT with an R of 1:4, it brings home the bacon.

This could work really well for a script which you could set once your H4 conditions have been met. There could be a buy script and a sell script which you would drag the appropriate one on to your M15 chart.

I think the entries are pretty good, but would welcome ideas for exits/targets. I know there are some great minds on this forum.... But please, ONLY POST THESE SUGGESTIONS IF YOU HAVE STATISTICS TO BACK UP WHAT YOU ARE SAYING!!!

Chart examples to follow.
GT3RS
Trader
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

OK, here is the H4 setup we all know about.

I have adjusted my chart so that when the RSI [2] flatlines, it actually disappears behind the 100 or 0 level. This makes it easier for me to see [just a personal preference].

It MUST reach 100 on a candle CLOSE.
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GT3RS
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Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

And the M15 chart where we look for our entry.

NOTE, we only look for entry during London or NY session.

I have used an EMA crossover signal to print arrows on my chart.
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GT3RS
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Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

And here's the last one showing how this deal achieved an R of 4.
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GT3RS
Trader
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

Remember guys, number of pips gained is TOTALLY irrelevant, UNLESS you quote how many pips you RISKED.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

Trader A makes 1000 pips in a week

Trader B makes 250 pips in a week, but makes more money than trader A - simply because his R is so much better.

So, don't worry about the fact that this method doesn't capture as much of the move [as many pips] as the main 10.4 does. A 50% strike rate with an R of 4 does the job very nicely.......
GT3RS
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Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

If anyone wants my template, just shout up and I will gladly post it.
GT3RS
Trader
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

Not really. What if the guy who makes 10 pips with his huge account had to risk 1000 pips to get his 10 pips?

He makes less than the guy who makes 1000 pips who only risked 100 pips.......

I don't want to get bogged down with this, but all I'm saying is that pips made are ONLY relevant in the context of pips risked.

The REAL measure of success [or otherwise!] is % return on account.

Anyway, enough of that, on to the strategy!
spotdespot
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Posts: 768
Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:38 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by spotdespot »

Rob - I agree with your R:R and "pips" comments. I had an issue with the R:R situation with 10.4 too but the reality is that with the success rate and the multiple entries it seems to work. The main thing though I think is that everyone needs to be comfortable with whatever method they are using.

Your crossover idea looks good but how do you exit? It seems unlikely that you would get all of that move you posted above? (EDIT: Just re-read your first post and see that this is something you are working on).

I guess it takes a bit more effort than Bob's vanilla 10.4 as well as it's not "set and forget"?

Good luck with it.

Cheers,
Dave.
GT3RS
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Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

Thanks Dave,

Glad someone sees the reality of the situation!!

My intention was actually to simplify 10.4 for myself and anyone else who's interested. Hmm... seems I might not have done that!!!??

Anyway, my statistics show that shooting for 4R gives the best results.

Strike rate is 50%, but with winners at 4 times bigger than losers, that works nicely. But as I said, I'm open to suggestion.

What I believe this certainly DOES do is to eliminate any uncertainty about entries.

EG:

Price below 240LWMA - yes - look for shorts.

RSI[2] pinned at 100 ON CANDLE CLOSE - yes - go to M15 chart.

Enter on 3EMA/8EMA cross downwards - ONLY DURING LONDON/NY SESSION. SL above swing high, TP = 4 x SL.

Very mechanical....
GT3RS
Trader
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Re: 10.4 GT3RS style

Post by GT3RS »

Results this week from the 14 pairs I monitor:

AUDUSD -2%

AUDUSD - 2%

AUDUSD +8%

EURGPB + 8%

EURNZD trade still open - showing slight profit at the moment

EURUSD +8%

GBPUSD +8%

USDCAD +8%

USDCHF -2%

So, assuming you started the week with a $1000 account and assuming the trades were in that order [they weren't], you would have ended the week with $1,383.

That's a 38% return on account guys, never risking more than 2% per deal.......

Would love someone to write a script for the EMA crossover entry.........

An alert for when RSI[2] is at 100 or 0 on a candle close would be handy too...... :D
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